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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-03T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-03T18:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47302/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-07-03T18:36Z. It is also seen to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 and to the NNE in STEREO A COR2. Only the first couple of frames in SOHO LASCO C2 are seen in real time due to a data gap between downlink periods. This CME is associated with an M6.7 class flare from AR 14479 (N15W58) that peaked at 2026-07-03T18:11Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. A large EUV wave and wide opening field lines are also seen in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-07T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47304/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-03T18:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=54.0, Lat.=23.0, Speed=687.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2026-07-03T23:31Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-07T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-05T15:27Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-06T12:51Z
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-05T16:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-08T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260703_233100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 93.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-03T22:30Z

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